Explained: How Trump’s tariffs brought India and China closer despite years of strained foreign policy

India and China have been rivals for decades, often clashing over borders, trade, and influence in Asia. But today, a surprising factor has brought them closer — the tariff war launched by US President Donald Trump. In just a few months, Washington’s aggressive trade policies have done what years of dialogue could not: they have created a rare moment of cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit from August 30 marks the first time in seven years that he will set foot in China. This trip comes not just because of slow improvements in ties after the Ladakh stand-off, but also because the US tariffs have pushed both countries to see each other differently. For once, India and China are finding common ground in resisting Washington’s economic pressure.

Why tariffs changed the equation

The turning point came when President Trump imposed steep tariffs on Indian imports — a 50% duty, citing India’s oil trade with Russia. This move shocked New Delhi, which had long considered Washington a close trade partner. At the same time, Trump announced a massive 145% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods, though he delayed its implementation until mid-November. The message to both India and China was clear: the US was willing to use trade as a weapon, no matter the consequences.

India’s response was firm. The government called the levies “unfair and unreasonable,” insisting that the country’s energy choices and farmer interests could not be dictated by anyone. Prime Minister Modi also made it clear that India would not bend under pressure. Instead, New Delhi began actively searching for new markets outside the US. Reports suggested that India was opening trade doors with China, Latin America, and the Middle East to reduce reliance on Washington.

This is where China seized the opportunity. Beijing’s ambassador in New Delhi, Xu Feihong, strongly condemned the US tariffs, warning that “silence only emboldens the bully.” His words struck a chord in India, which had been publicly resisting Washington’s pressure. For the first time in years, both India and China found themselves making similar arguments against the same opponent.

Adding to this, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a confidential letter to Indian leaders, including President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Modi. In it, he reportedly expressed concern over Washington’s aggressive stance and called for closer cooperation between the two Asian giants. This was followed by a public message marking the 75th anniversary of India-China diplomatic relations, where Xi spoke of peaceful coexistence, mutual trust, and working together to build a fairer global order.

The symbolism mattered. For India, it was a reminder that even a rival like China could be a useful partner when the global environment turns hostile. For Beijing, it was an opportunity to break the ice with New Delhi and show the world it was not completely isolated.

From rivalry to reluctant cooperation

The results of this unexpected alignment are already visible. India and China have agreed to reopen trade channels, restart border trade routes, and restore direct flights. Visa processes are being eased, and talks on border management — frozen for years after the Galwan clash — are being revived. These steps do not erase deep mistrust, but they reduce friction and create space for cooperation.

Experts argue that Trump’s tariff war may have succeeded in one area — pushing India and China towards pragmatic engagement. American economist Richard Wolff even criticised Washington for playing the “world’s tough guy,” warning that such behaviour was driving countries like India and China closer together and strengthening groupings like BRICS.

Indeed, the timing of Modi’s visit to the SCO Summit in Tianjin reinforces this point. India, once reluctant to fully embrace SCO or BRICS initiatives due to Chinese dominance, now finds value in participating more actively. Both sides have started using terms like “twin engines of Asia’s economic growth,” suggesting they see potential in at least limited cooperation.

Still, this is not a friendship. The shadow of the Ladakh border dispute, China’s ties with Pakistan, and trade imbalances remain unresolved. But what has changed is the willingness to talk and cooperate where interests align. This is a significant shift from the deep freeze of the past five years.

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Opinion: Trump may have done Beijing and New Delhi a favour

It is ironic that Washington’s attempt to discipline India and China may have achieved the opposite result. By targeting both nations with punitive tariffs, Trump inadvertently gave them a reason to talk. Shared pressure from the US created space for the two Asian powers to look past some of their differences and explore areas of mutual benefit.

This does not mean India is abandoning the US or rushing into China’s embrace. Far from it. New Delhi still values its partnerships with Washington, Tokyo, and Europe. But what is clear is that India will not allow itself to be cornered. By improving ties with China, India is signalling to the world that it has options — and that it can balance multiple relationships without being trapped in anyone’s camp.

For China, too, the lesson is simple: cooperation with India, even limited, makes it harder for the US to isolate Beijing. At a time when its tensions with the West remain high, engaging India provides a strategic cushion.

In the end, Trump’s tariffs may have done what decades of foreign policy could not — give India and China a shared reason to talk. Whether this leads to long-term stability is uncertain, but in a volatile world, even reluctant cooperation between two of Asia’s biggest powers is no small development.